There are 3 major theories as to why Mike Lynch’s Bayesian yacht sank so fast
On Thursday, Italian authorities retrieved a fifth body from the Bayesian superyacht that sank in a storm earlier this week, killing British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch.
The 184-foot British-flagged vessel sank early Monday , and the five identified bodies thus far from the incident include Mike Lynch , founder of Autonomy and investor in Darktrace; Morgan Stanley Bank International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy; Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife, Neda, were also found. Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah is still missing.
There are several theories as to why the massive $39 million boat sank in just about 60 seconds. And the maker of the ship says the crew should have had time to rescue passengers.
Theory one: The mast was pushed over by the wind
The first theory is that the mast on the massive vessel was so tall it tipped the boat over when a waterspout— essentially a water tornado —hit the boat. Giovanni Costantino , CEO of the Italian Sea Group , which owns several boat brands including the yacht’s builder, Perini Navi , told the Financial Times the boat was “designed to be absolutely stable” because it had the “world’s second-tallest mast.” But Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, suggests the sinking actually could have been caused by high winds hitting the 236-foot mast. Even with sails stowed, the mast and its rigging would have provided a vast surface area for wind resistance.
The Bayesian “went flat [with the mast] on the water, and then went down,” Borner told Reuters . For reference, the tallest mast on a sailing boat on record was the Mirabella V at nearly 247 feet long, according to Guinness World Records .
Theory two: The retractable keel was in the wrong position
The second theory about the cause of the Bayesian sinking is that the keel was retracted when it should have been lowered, making the boat less stable. The keel is a structural beam that runs under the middle of the boat from bow to stern, giving the boat better stability, a lower center of gravity in the water, and more control while moving forward. “Without the keel, a boat might slip or skim on the water,” according to boat manufacturer Sea Born .
The Bayesian had a keel that could be retracted, according to the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. It could be lifted to reduce the draught of the boat, making it easier to enter shallow harbors. It’s possible that if the keel had been in the raised position rather than extended, that could have compromised the boat’s stability in a strong wind, causing it to sink.
Theory three: A major hatch was left open to the waves
Perhaps the strongest theory so far is the notion that someone onboard may have left a major hatch or door ajar, causing the boat to quickly fill with water. In fact, Costantino thinks this is the strongest theory after watching back footage of the sinking; the rear of the boat appears to have a hinged door that folds down into a sea-level deck.
Since it was obvious the Bayesian was taking on water, there should have been time to get everyone off the boat and into rafts, Costantino told the FT .
“Jesus Christ! The hull is intact. The water came in from [hatchways] left open,” he said. “There is no other possible explanation. If maneuvered properly, the boat would have comfortably handled the weather—comfortably,” he said.
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Final Body Is Recovered From Yacht That Sank Off Sicily
Hannah Lynch, the 18-year-old daughter of the British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, was on board a yacht that was hit by a storm and went down in the early hours on Monday.
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By Emma Bubola and Elisabetta Povoledo
Emma Bubola reported from Porticello, Italy, and Elisabetta Povoledo from Pallanza, Italy.
For nearly a week after a violent storm sent a luxury yacht to the bottom of the sea off the coast of Sicily, Italian scuba divers plunged deep underwater, moving through ropes and fallen objects inside the yacht in a desperate search for the six people missing.
On Friday, the recovery of the body of Hannah Lynch, 18, put an end to the wrenching search and to the slim hopes that any of the missing people might have survived.
Ms. Lynch, the daughter of the British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, who also died in the yacht’s sinking, was the last person to be formally unaccounted for since Monday after tragedy struck a group that had been celebrating her father’s acquittal in a high-profile fraud case.
There were 10 crew members and 12 passengers on board the 180-foot vessel, the Bayesian, when it was hit by a storm and went down about 4.30 a.m. on Monday, the boat’s management company said on Friday.
Fifteen survived.
The body of the ship’s cook, Recaldo Thomas, was found on Monday, a few hours after a downpour hit the northwestern coast of Sicily, near the port of Porticello, where the yacht had been anchored.
But it took several days to recover the bodies of the six passengers who were apparently trapped inside the yacht: Mr. Lynch and Ms. Lynch; Jonathan Bloomer, the chairman of Morgan Stanley International; his wife, Judy Bloomer; Christopher J. Morvillo, a lawyer at Clifford Chance; and his wife, Neda Morvillo.
On Friday, a round of applause could be heard from the firefighter’s tent set up on the dock in Porticello after the last body was pulled out in what the corps described as a “complex” search operation at a depth of about 165 feet. The firefighters said they had made 123 immersions into the sea to try to retrieve the bodies.
The body bag was then loaded onto an ambulance. A local man had left a small wooden cross on the rocks in front of the dock where the bodies were brought ashore.
Mr. Lynch’s wife, Angela Bacares, was among those who managed to reach the safety of a raft. They were rescued by a sailing schooner that had been bobbing about 150 yards from the yacht.
In a statement, the family thanked the search teams and said that it was enduring a “time of unspeakable grief.”
“The Lynch family is devastated, in shock and is being comforted and supported by family and friends,” the statement added.
As prosecutors from the nearby city of Termini Imerese began conducting interviews with the survivors and possible witnesses, the crew and passengers of the Bayesian have been confined to a local hotel, where the news media have been denied access.
Salvatore Cocina, the head of Sicily’s civil protection agency, said on Thursday that the survivors had turned down the psychological assistance his department had offered to them.
In Porticello, the sprawling presence of rescue services made a haunting backdrop for an otherwise tranquil port town. People sunbathed and ate ricotta-filled pastries, and stores selling sandals and dried fruit opened as normal, while coast guard and firefighting vessels came and went from the shore, taking scuba divers out to the shipwreck.
Other reminders of the tragedy could be seen along the coast, among palm trees and ice cream shops, with groups of onlookers staring out at the sea, now tranquil and flat.
Local and national news organizations have complained that prosecutors have not issued a statement or held a news conference. Prosecutors may shed more light on the yacht’s sinking when they hold a news conference on Saturday.
The marine accident investigation branch of the British transportation ministry was also looking into the shipwreck of the vessel, which was registered in Britain.
One of the major questions is what caused the boat to sink: Was it the fault of the boat maker, of the crew or of a powerful act of nature — or some combination of the three? None of those who were onboard the Bayesian have spoken publicly.
The luxury yacht, built by the Italian manufacturer Perini Navi and launched in 2008, had the second-tallest aluminum mast in the world, according to its makers.
Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, which in 2022 bought Perini Navi, has been assertive in defending the design and construction of the yacht, saying that the Bayesian would be “unsinkable” if the proper procedures were followed.
But yacht design experts have cautioned that the lesson of the Titanic, the ocean liner that sank on its 1912 maiden voyage, showed that no vessel, no matter how robust, was worthy of that label.
Nautilus International, a maritime-focused labor union, criticized any implication that the crew had been at fault, especially at this stage. In a statement , the union’s general secretary, Mark Dickinson, said, “Experience tells us that maritime tragedies are always the result of multiple, interconnected factors,” and he urged people to refrain from drawing any conclusions until a thorough investigation had been carried out.
The investigation into the causes will take months, prosecutors said.
Michael J. de la Merced contributed reporting.
Emma Bubola is a Times reporter based in Rome. More about Emma Bubola
Elisabetta Povoledo is a reporter based in Rome, covering Italy, the Vatican and the culture of the region. She has been a journalist for 35 years. More about Elisabetta Povoledo
The 'Bayesian' Yacht Owner Is Missing After a Tornado Sank the Luxury Vessel
Mike has been referred to as "Britain’s version of Bill Gates."
Published Aug. 20 2024, 10:18 a.m. ET
The 184-foot luxury yacht called The Bayesian sank off the coast of Palermo, Italy on Monday, Aug. 19, 2024. Per CNN , six passengers are still missing at the time of writing — the original manifest included 22 people on board.
It's being reported that 15 people were rescued, and one passenger died. One of the missing is Mike Lynch, a tech entrepreneur whose wife's firm, Revcom, technically owns the superyacht. Mike has a very interesting past, which involves one of the biggest fraud cases in Silicon Valley history.
Read on for details.
So, who is Mike Lynch, the 'Bayesian' yacht owner who is missing?
According to The Washington Post , Mike is not accounted for after The Bayesian sank near Sicily in what's being called a "freak storm." Reportedly, the yacht's mast broke due to high winds, and the huge vessel sank.
The unthinkable accident resulted in Mike's 18-year-old daughter Hannah also being missing.
His wife, Angela Bacares, was reportedly rescued.
Per the outlet, Mike has been referred to as "Britain’s version of Bill Gates ." His company, Autonomy, sold to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion over a decade ago.
But as AP News reports, that mega-deal soured when Mike was accused of falsifying documents leading up to the sale of Autonomy. A multi-year court case ensued, with Mike eventually being cleared of charges in the United States. Still, per the outlet, he was not done dealing with a civil case in his native Britain at the time of the yacht accident.
This is totally normal. Just a major business figure, Mike Lynch, and his co-defendant Stephen Chamberlain dying within a few hours of each other. A sailing accident and a hit and run. Nothing to see here. pic.twitter.com/0HGIymfsxE — Jamie Bambrick (@j_bambrick) August 20, 2024
Mike Lynch's co-defendant was killed the same week the 'Bayesian' sank.
In a turn of events worthy of a movie, Mike's co-defendant in the case against him died on Saturday, just a few days before The Bayesian plummeted to 160 feet below the surface of the sea.
Stephen Chamberlain, who was killed by a car while jogging in England, was the former vice-president of finance for Autonomy, per The Guardian . He was initially placed on life support but later died.
And the lawyer who represented them is missing. I am not in the habit of seeking conspiracies but this is very suspect — kim ratcliffe (@KimRatcliffe37) August 20, 2024
Given the incredibly coincidental nature of the two awful tragedies, of course, conspiracy theories are cropping up on social media.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Christopher Morvillo, the lawyer who helped clear the men of charges in the U.S., is among those missing after The Bayesian sank, per the New York Post .
Two months before going missing, Christopher oddly posted to LinkedIn for the first time .
"Following the jury's swift exoneration of our client, Mike Lynch, and his colleague, Steven Chamberlain, last week in San Francisco, I finally have something to say that I would like others to hear," he wrote in part.
After thanking many people who helped win the case, he finished the post by writing, "A huge thank you to my patient and incredible wife, Neda Morvillo, and my two strong, brilliant, and beautiful daughters, Sabrina Morvillo and Sophia Morvillo. None of this would have been possible without your love and support. I am so glad to be home. And they all lived happily ever after…."
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What we know about the Bayesian superyacht that sank
The Bayesian, which capsized in the early hours of Monday, was an award-winning yacht with the second-tallest mast in the world.
News reporter @niamhielynch
Friday 23 August 2024 12:37, UK
The Bayesian, an award-winning superyacht, sank during bad weather off the coast of Sicily in the early hours of Monday.
On Thursday, authorities confirmed divers had found the bodies of British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, Morgan Stanley International boss Jonathan Bloomer, his wife Judy, and one of Mr Lynch's lawyers Chris Morvillo, and his wife Neda.
Recaldo Thomas, the on-board chef, was the first to be confirmed dead earlier this week.
Mr Lynch's wife, Angela Bacares, was rescued along with 14 others - including Charlotte Golunski, a mother who told la Repubblica she held her one-year-old baby above the waves to save her from drowning.
Mr Lynch's 18-year-old daughter Hannah is missing, but believed to be the seventh body recovered from the wreckage on Friday.
But what do we know about the ship?
The British-flagged 56-metre ship - previously called the Salute - was built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, and refitted in 2020.
More on Superyacht Sinking
'My little angel': Sister of final yacht victim Hannah Lynch speaks for first time since tragedy
How is the sinking of Mike Lynch's Bayesian superyacht being investigated?
Superyacht boss asks why Bayesian crew were not in 'state of alert' for storm
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Its 72-metre mast was the world's tallest aluminium mast, and the second-tallest overall. The yacht could reach a maximum speed of 15 knots and weighed 543 tonnes.
The French design house Remi Tessier fitted out the Japanese-style interior decor, with touches of light and dark beige and dark wood furnishings, as well as a teak deck.
It won the best exterior styling at The World Superyacht Awards in 2009, and best interior at the International Superyacht Society Awards 2008.
It had six guest bedrooms - one master, three doubles, and two twins - holding 12 people, and could carry another 10 crew members.
Pictures show air conditioning units in several of the bedrooms, which could counter expert claims open windows may have caused water to rush in and tip the boat over faster.
Shipspotting.com says it was owned by a firm called Revtom Limited. Mike Lynch's wife, Ms Bacares, is named as the sole shareholder of the firm on company documents.
Read more from Sky News: Lynch's co-defendant dies after being hit by car We can learn from Lynch's unsuccessful prosecution
The yacht's name would resonate with Mr Lynch because his PhD thesis and the software that made his fortune involved a statistical method known as Bayesian inference, based on an 18th-century theory, which helps forecasters predict outcomes more reliably.
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It was listed for rent for up to €195,000 (£166,000) a week, according to online charter sites.
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Body of British tech magnate Mike Lynch is…
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Body of british tech magnate mike lynch is among those recovered from yacht wreckage, officials say.
One woman remains missing. She has not been identified, but Hannah Lynch, Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter, is reportedly unaccounted for . The family had been celebrating his recent acquittal on fraud charges with the people who defended him at trial in the United States.
Five others were recovered by rescue crews following Monday’s tragedy.
The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm early Monday as it was moored about a kilometer (half a mile) offshore. Civil protection officials said they believe the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout , and sank quickly.
Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office investigators were collecting evidence for a criminal investigation, which they opened immediately after the tragedy despite no formal suspects having been publicly identified.
The chief executive of The Italian Sea Group, which owns the Bayesian’s manufacturer, told the AP in an interview on Thursday that superyachts like these are “designed to be unsinkable.”
“And it is unsinkable not only because it is designed in this way, but also because it is a sailing ship and sailing ships are the safest ever,” CEO Giovanni Costantino said.
Costantino added that “obviously they must not hit the rocks violently, discarding the hull, and they must not take in water,” suggesting the second possibility was the most likely in this case.
Costantino also noted that sailing ships require “a greater competence” to be guided compared with motor boats.
Investigators are now looking at why the Bayesian, built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, sank while a nearby sailboat remained largely unscathed . Fifteen of the 22 people aboard survived by escaping in a lifeboat, including a mother who reported holding her 1-year-old baby over the waves to save her. They were rescued by the sailboat Sir Robert Baden Powell.
The sailboat’s captain, Karsten Borner, said his craft sustained minimal damage — the frame of a sun awning broke — even with winds that he estimated had reached 12 on the Beaufort wind scale, the highest hurricane-strength force on the scale.
He said he had remained anchored with his engines running to try to maintain the ship’s position as the forecast storm rolled in.
“Another possibility is to heave anchor before the storm and to run downwind at open sea,” Borner said in a text message. But he said that might not have been possible for the Bayesian, given its 75-meter (246-foot) tall mast.
“If there was a stability problem, caused by the extremely tall mast, it would not have been better at open sea,” he said.
Yachts like the Bayesian are required to have watertight compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.
Lynch is the only person confirmed dead; the other bodies have not been formally identified by the Italian coast guard.
Besides Hannah Lynch, those missing are Christopher Morvillo, one of Lynch’s U.S. lawyers, and his wife, Neda; Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of Morgan Stanley’s London-based investment banking subsidiary, and his wife, Judy.
The body of chef Recaldo Thomas was the first to be recovered , on Monday. His death was confirmed by his family.
Friends of Thomas, best known as “Rick,” paid tribute to him on Thursday at a favorite bar in the Caribbean Island of Antigua. Cooking for Lynch was supposed to be one of Thomas’ last jobs before retiring, his cousin, David Isaac, told the AP.
Divers have struggled to find the bodies in the yacht’s hull on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) underwater.
“We would need a crystal ball to know when we’ll be able to find the next body,” said Luca Cari, spokesperson for the fire rescue service.
“It’s very difficult to move inside the wreckage. Moving just one meter can take up to 24 hours,” Cari said.
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